PitNews.com | Futures News - Commodity Almanac

Commodity Almanac by Scott Barrie Date: 10/15/09 Estimated Update: 10/16/09 Company: Commodity Futures & Equity Analytics Phone: 503-477-5383 E-Mail: Barrie@CommodityAlmanac.com Website: www.CommodityAlmanac.com Frost Risk and Tight Supplies May Turn the Soybean Oil Market The northern hemisphere soybean crop is harvested in October and November. The southern hemisphere crop is approaching planting. As such, generally the supply of products (soybean meal and oil) tends to be tight as the general supply of soybeans tends to be as well. This year, the North American Harvest is about 2 weeks behind schedule. This is very serious as it opens up the Soybean crop to an early frost which could easily change the supply to demand balance from bearish to bullish. Historically, according to the 2009/10 Grain Trader’s Almanac, January Soybean futures (S2010F) have rallied from the 4th trading day of October through to the 4th to last trading day of December. Short supplies and crop risk are typically the reasons given for the increase in price. Technically, the Soybean market is looking strong. It held support at the July lows and has had 2 days of breahing a major downward trendline from the mid-August highs. Also, the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) is showing major divergence and bullish signals. Against this backdrop of a potential interruption of supply, coupled with technical market action traders should be looking strongly at establishing long positions in January Soybeans. For more information on the grain markets, visit http://www.grainguide.com/Order_Form.htm

Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the future, achieve profits using the above information. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial-beyond the full balance of an account. All funds committed should be purely risk capital. The information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the recipient of this e-mail communication and not intended as any implied guarantee of profits.

Accumulating Wealth One Tic At A Time! ®